Global and local implications of biotechnology and climate change for future food supplies

The development of improved technology for agricultural production and its diffusion to farmers is a process requiring investment and time. A large number of studies of this process have been undertaken. The findings of these studies have been incorporated into a quantitative policy model projecting supplies of commodities (in terms of area and crop yields), equilibrium prices, and international trade volumes to the year 2020. These projections show that a “global food crisis,” as would be manifested in high commodity prices, is unlikely to occur. The same projections show, however, that in many countries, “local food crisis,” as manifested in low agricultural incomes and associated low food consumption in the presence of low food prices, will occur. Simulations show that delays in the diffusion of modern biotechnology research capabilities to developing countries will exacerbate local food crises. Similarly, global climate change will also exacerbate these crises, accentuating the importance of bringing strengthened research capabilities to developing countries.

Regulation of sterol regulatory element binding proteins in livers of fasted and refed mice

Hepatic lipid synthesis is known to be regulated by food consumption. In rodents fasting decreases the synthesis of cholesterol as well as fatty acids. Refeeding a high carbohydrate/low fat diet enhances fatty acid synthesis by 5- to 20-fold above the fed state, whereas cholesterol synthesis returns only to the prefasted level. Sterol regulatory element binding proteins (SREBPs) are transcription factors that regulate genes involved in cholesterol and fatty acid synthesis. Here, we show that fasting markedly reduces the amounts of SREBP-1 and -2 in mouse liver nuclei, with corresponding decreases in the mRNAs for SREBP-activated target genes. Refeeding a high carbohydrate/low fat diet resulted in a 4- to 5-fold increase of nuclear SREBP-1 above nonfasted levels, whereas nuclear SREBP-2 protein returned only to the nonfasted level. The hepatic mRNAs for fatty acid biosynthetic enzymes increased 5- to 10-fold above nonfasted levels, a pattern that paralleled the changes in nuclear SREBP-1. The hepatic mRNAs for enzymes involved in cholesterol synthesis returned to the nonfasted level, closely following the pattern of nuclear SREBP-2 regulation. Transgenic mice that overproduce nuclear SREBP-1c failed to show the normal decrease in hepatic mRNA levels for cholesterol and fatty acid synthetic enzymes upon fasting. We conclude that SREBPs are regulated by food consumption in the mouse liver and that the decline in nuclear SREBP-1c upon fasting may explain in part the decrease in mRNAs encoding enzymes of the fatty acid biosynthetic pathway.

Construction of an improved mycoinsecticide overexpressing a toxic protease.

Mycoinsecticides are being used for the control of many insect pests as an environmentally acceptable alternative to chemical insecticides. A key aim of much recent work has been to increase the speed of kill and so improve commercial efficacy of these biocontrol agents. This might he achieved by adding insecticidal genes to the fungus, an approach considered to have enormous potential for the improvement of biological pesticides. We report here the development of a genetically improved entomopathogenic fungus. Additional copies of the gene encoding a regulated cuticle-degrading protease (Pr1) from Metarhizium anisopliae were inserted into the genome of M. anisopliae such that Pr1 was constitutively overproduced in the hemolymph of Manduca sexta, activating the prophenoloxidase system. The combined toxic effects of Pr1 and the reaction products of phenoloxidase caused larvae challenged with the engineered fungus to exhibit a 25% reduction in time of death and reduced food consumption by 40% compared to infections by the wild-type fungus. In addition, infected insects were rapidly melanized, and the resulting cadavers were poor substrates for fungal sporulation. Thus, environmental persistence of the genetically engineered fungus is reduced, thereby providing biological containment.

Fluctuating silicate:nitrate ratios and coastal plankton food webs

Marine diatoms require dissolved silicate to form an external shell, and their growth becomes Si-limited when the atomic ratio of silicate to dissolved inorganic nitrogen (Si:DIN) approaches 1:1, also known as the “Redfield ratio.” Fundamental changes in the diatom-to-zooplankton-to-higher trophic level food web should occur when this ratio falls below 1:1 and the proportion of diatoms in the phytoplankton community is reduced. We quantitatively substantiate these predictions by using a variety of data from the Mississippi River continental shelf, a system in which the Si:DIN loading ratio has declined from around 3:1 to 1:1 during this century because of land-use practices in the watershed. We suggest that, on this shelf, when the Si:DIN ratio in the river decreases to less than 1:1, then (i) copepod abundance changes from >75% to <30% of the total mesozooplankton, (ii) zooplankton fecal pellets become a minor component of the in situ primary production consumed, and (iii) bottom-water oxygen consumption rates become less dependent on relatively fast-sinking (diatom-rich) organic matter packaged mostly as zooplankton fecal pellets. This coastal ecosystem appears to be a pelagic food web dynamically poised to be either a food web composed of diatoms and copepods or one with potentially disruptive harmful algal blooms. The system is directed between these two ecosystem states by Mississippi River water quality, which is determined by land-use practices far inland.

World food and agriculture: Outlook for the medium and longer term

The world has been making progress in improving food security, as measured by the per person availability of food for direct human consumption. However, progress has been very uneven, and many developing countries have failed to participate in such progress. In some countries, the food security situation is today worse than 20 years ago. The persistence of food insecurity does not reflect so much a lack of capacity of the world as a whole to increase food production to whatever level would be required for everyone to have consumption levels assuring satisfactory nutrition. The world already produces sufficient food. The undernourished and the food-insecure persons are in these conditions because they are poor in terms of income with which to purchase food or in terms of access to agricultural resources, education, technology, infrastructure, credit, etc., to produce their own food. Economic development failures account for the persistence of poverty and food insecurity. In the majority of countries with severe food-security problems, the greatest part of the poor and food-insecure population depend greatly on local agriculture for a living. In such cases, development failures are often tantamount to failures of agricultural development. Development of agriculture is seen as the first crucial step toward broader development, reduction of poverty and food insecurity, and eventually freedom from excessive economic dependence on poor agricultural resources. Projections indicate that progress would continue, but at a pace and pattern that would be insufficient for the incidence of undernutrition to be reduced significantly in the medium-term future. As in the past, world agricultural production is likely to keep up with, and perhaps tend to exceed, the growth of the effective demand for food. The problem will continue to be one of persistence of poverty, leading to growth of the effective demand for food on the part of the poor that would fall short of that required for them to attain levels of consumption compatible with freedom from undernutrition.

Nitrogen management and the future of food: Lessons from the management of energy and carbon

The food system dominates anthropogenic disruption of the nitrogen cycle by generating excess fixed nitrogen. Excess fixed nitrogen, in various guises, augments the greenhouse effect, diminishes stratospheric ozone, promotes smog, contaminates drinking water, acidifies rain, eutrophies bays and estuaries, and stresses ecosystems. Yet, to date, regulatory efforts to limit these disruptions largely ignore the food system. There are many parallels between food and energy. Food is to nitrogen as energy is to carbon. Nitrogen fertilizer is analogous to fossil fuel. Organic agriculture and agricultural biotechnology play roles analogous to renewable energy and nuclear power in political discourse. Nutrition research resembles energy end-use analysis. Meat is the electricity of food. As the agriculture and food system evolves to contain its impacts on the nitrogen cycle, several lessons can be extracted from energy and carbon: (i) set the goal of ecosystem stabilization; (ii) search the entire production and consumption system (grain, livestock, food distribution, and diet) for opportunities to improve efficiency; (iii) implement cap-and-trade systems for fixed nitrogen; (iv) expand research at the intersection of agriculture and ecology, and (v) focus on the food choices of the prosperous. There are important nitrogen-carbon links. The global increase in fixed nitrogen may be fertilizing the Earth, transferring significant amounts of carbon from the atmosphere to the biosphere, and mitigating global warming. A modern biofuels industry someday may produce biofuels from crop residues or dedicated energy crops, reducing the rate of fossil fuel use, while losses of nitrogen and other nutrients are minimized.